Oborishte 5–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II: Result & Stats

Oborishte

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

8/10/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 2Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oborishte65%

×Draw22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OborishteExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.73

Oborishte

1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.73

Oborishte creates 158% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 37 away

1.70

creates per match

0.62

0.85

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Oborishte

1.70

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Oborishte

0.85

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw

86%

Oborishte or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

78%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

35%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+

39%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals

85%

Oborishte 2+ goals

56%

Oborishte 3+ goals

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

52%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

17%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)

82%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Oborishte scores more

65%

level

22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

14%

Oborishte at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oborishte vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Oborishte beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 5-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.

Oborishte vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Oborishte vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II