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Oborishte vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
0 – 1
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
11/7/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 14Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oborishte70%
×Draw19%
Perun Kresna11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
2.14
Perun Kresna
0.71

Oborishte creates 201% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
89%
Oborishte or Perun Kresna
81%
Draw or Perun Kresna
30%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
46%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
88%
Oborishte 2+ goals
63%
Oborishte 3+ goals
36%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
51%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
16%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
86%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.14

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Oborishte scores more
70%
level
19%
Perun Kresna scores more
11%

Oborishte at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oborishte 0 – 1 Perun Kresna

Perun Kresna beat Oborishte 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.