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Oborishte vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
5/24/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 36Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Oborishte62%
×Draw21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
2.04
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.97

Oborishte creates 110% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 78 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
83%
Oborishte or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
79%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
38%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
38%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
87%
Oborishte 2+ goals
60%
Oborishte 3+ goals
33%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
62%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
78%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.04

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Oborishte scores more
62%
level
21%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
17%

Oborishte at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Oborishte 1–2 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi beat Oborishte 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.