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Oborishte vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
2 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
11/26/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Oborishte69%
×Draw19%
Granit Vladaya12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
2.17
Granit Vladaya
0.79

Oborishte creates 175% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 70 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
88%
Oborishte or Granit Vladaya
81%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
31%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
45%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
89%
Oborishte 2+ goals
64%
Oborishte 3+ goals
36%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
55%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
19%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
85%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.17

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Oborishte scores more
69%
level
19%
Granit Vladaya scores more
12%

Oborishte at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Oborishte 2–0 Granit Vladaya

Oborishte beat Granit Vladaya 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Saraya in Saraya.