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Oborishte vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
3 – 1
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
5/18/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Oborishte55%
×Draw24%
Botev Ihtiman20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.69
Botev Ihtiman
0.92

Oborishte creates 84% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 132 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
80%
Oborishte or Botev Ihtiman
76%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
45%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
30%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
82%
Oborishte 2+ goals
50%
Oborishte 3+ goals
24%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
60%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
23%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
73%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oborishte scores more
55%
level
24%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
20%

Oborishte at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oborishte vs Botev Ihtiman

Oborishte beat Botev Ihtiman 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.