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Obolon' Kyiv U19 vs Vorskla U19 — U19 League 2023

Obolon' Kyiv U19
Obolon' Kyiv U19
FT
0 – 1
Vorskla U19
Vorskla U19
11/10/2023U19 LeagueU19 League · Round 14Stadion UTB Obolon'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Obolon' Kyiv U1940%
×Draw25%
Vorskla U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon' Kyiv U19
1.52
Vorskla U19
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Obolon' Kyiv U19
1.38
Vorskla U19
0.97

allows per match

Obolon' Kyiv U19
1.84
Vorskla U19
1.67

finishing

Obolon' Kyiv U19+0.00on par
Vorskla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon' Kyiv U19 ↓

Vorskla U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Obolon' Kyiv U19 or draw
65%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 or Vorskla U19
75%
Draw or Vorskla U19
60%

Winning margin

Obolon' Kyiv U19 wins by 2+
20%
Vorskla U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Obolon' Kyiv U19 1+ goals
78%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 2+ goals
45%
Obolon' Kyiv U19 3+ goals
20%
Vorskla U19 1+ goals
76%
Vorskla U19 2+ goals
41%
Vorskla U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Obolon' Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Vorskla U19 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon' Kyiv U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Vorskla U19 away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 1.38 + Vorskla U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vorskla U19 attack 0.97 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Obolon' Kyiv U19 scores more
40%
level
25%
Vorskla U19 scores more
35%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Obolon' Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 League: Obolon' Kyiv U19 0–1 Vorskla U19

Vorskla U19 beat Obolon' Kyiv U19 1-0 in U19 League on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion UTB Obolon' in Bucha.