Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Vorskla Poltava: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vorskla Poltava

2/23/2025

Premier League · Round 18Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar33%

×Draw29%

Vorskla Poltava37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchVorskla Poltava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.14

Obolon'-Brovar

1.06

Vorskla Poltava

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 82 away

0.72

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

0.72

Vorskla Poltava

0.91

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.37

Vorskla Poltava

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar+0.00on par

Vorskla Poltava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Vorskla Poltava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

63%

Obolon'-Brovar or Vorskla Poltava

71%

Draw or Vorskla Poltava

67%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

13%

Vorskla Poltava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

65%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

29%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

9%

Vorskla Poltava 1+ goals

68%

Vorskla Poltava 2+ goals

32%

Vorskla Poltava 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

47%

Vorskla Poltava (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

Vorskla Poltava away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.72 + Vorskla Poltava defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

33%

level

29%

Vorskla Poltava scores more

37%

Vorskla Poltava at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vorskla Poltava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff