Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Ruh Brest: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

0 – 2

Ruh Brest

3/7/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titanic Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar27%

×Draw25%

Ruh Brest48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchRuh Brest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.59

Obolon'-Brovar

1.13

Ruh Brest

1.59

Ruh Brest creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.18

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.50

Ruh Brest

2.00

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.18

Ruh Brest

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar+0.00on par

Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Ruh Brest →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

52%

Obolon'-Brovar or Ruh Brest

75%

Draw or Ruh Brest

73%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

11%

Ruh Brest wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

68%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

31%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

11%

Ruh Brest 1+ goals

80%

Ruh Brest 2+ goals

47%

Ruh Brest 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

36%

Ruh Brest (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.50 + Ruh Brest defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ruh Brest attack 2.00 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

27%

level

25%

Ruh Brest scores more

48%

Ruh Brest at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff