Obolon'-Brovar 2–2 Kolos Kovalivka: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kolos Kovalivka

8/4/2024

Premier League · Round 1Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar38%

×Draw25%

Kolos Kovalivka37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.47

Obolon'-Brovar

1.48

Kolos Kovalivka

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.35

creates per match

1.44

1.50

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.35

Kolos Kovalivka

1.44

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.50

Kolos Kovalivka

1.61

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.57scores less

Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

63%

Obolon'-Brovar or Kolos Kovalivka

75%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka

62%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

18%

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

77%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

43%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

19%

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

77%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

43%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

50%

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 9 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.35 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

38%

level

25%

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

37%

Obolon'-Brovar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff