Obolon'-Brovar 2–2 Karpaty: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Karpaty

R. Taranukha 81'

P. Stasiuk 20'

Igor Neves 90'

V. Pryimak 28' (OG)

4/26/2025

Premier League · Round 26Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar32%

×Draw25%

Karpaty42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.48

Obolon'-Brovar

1.25

Karpaty

1.48

Karpaty creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.20

creates per match

1.55

1.42

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.20

Karpaty

1.55

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.42

Karpaty

1.29

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.42scores less

Karpaty-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Karpaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

58%

Obolon'-Brovar or Karpaty

75%

Draw or Karpaty

68%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

14%

Karpaty wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

71%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

36%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

13%

Karpaty 1+ goals

77%

Karpaty 2+ goals

43%

Karpaty 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

43%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.29 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.20 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Karpaty attack 1.55 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

32%

level

25%

Karpaty scores more

42%

Karpaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

I. Kvasnytsia

Karpaty · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

P. Stasiuk↳ O. Illin

25'

Vasyl Kurko

28'

V. PryimakOwn goal

34'

Pavlo PolehenkoMissed penalty

45+1'

Danylo Karas

45+1'

Ambrosiy Chachua

61'

Vadym Vitenchuk

68'

Igor Neves← I. Krasnopir

70'

O. Slobodian← V. Hrusha

70'

R. Chernenko← V. Kurko

74'

Y. Pidlepenets← A. Chachua

74'

O. Fedor← Y. Kostenko

76'

R. Taranukha← D. Ustymenko

76'

V. Bliznichenko← K. Bychek

81'

R. Taranukha↳ R. Chernenko

86'

I. Kvasnytsia← O. Ocheretko

90+4'

T. Moroz← V. Vitenchuk

90'

Igor Neves↳ I. Kvasnytsia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Obolon'-BrovarKarpaty

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots18

0.54Expected Goals (xG)2.56

3Corners4

14Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked8

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box9

Passing

33%Possession67%

244Total Passes452

188Accurate Passes394

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Obolon'-Brovar vs Karpaty

Obolon'-Brovar and Karpaty drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 26, 2025.

Goals: P. Stasiuk (20'), V. Pryimak (28' o.g.), R. Taranukha (81'), Igor Neves (90').

Karpaty controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Obolon Arena in Kyiv.

Obolon'-Brovar vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Obolon'-Brovar vs Karpaty