Obolon'-Brovar II 2–0 Volyn Lutsk II

Obolon'-Brovar II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Volyn Lutsk II

D. Rudenko 51'

V. Bilyi 22'

5/22/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 23Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II42%

×Draw28%

Volyn Lutsk II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-Brovar IIExpected goals in this matchVolyn Lutsk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.28

Volyn Lutsk II

1.05

Obolon'-Brovar II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

0.73

creates per match

0.42

1.68

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

0.73

Volyn Lutsk II

0.42

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.68

Volyn Lutsk II

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Volyn Lutsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Volyn Lutsk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw

70%

Obolon'-Brovar II or Volyn Lutsk II

72%

Draw or Volyn Lutsk II

58%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

19%

Volyn Lutsk II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

72%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

37%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

14%

Volyn Lutsk II 1+ goals

65%

Volyn Lutsk II 2+ goals

28%

Volyn Lutsk II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

58%

Volyn Lutsk II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Volyn Lutsk II away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Volyn Lutsk II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Volyn Lutsk II attack 0.42 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

42%

level

28%

Volyn Lutsk II scores more

30%

Obolon'-Brovar II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

V. Bilyi

46'

V. Maydanovych← V. Bilyi

51'

D. Rudenko

62'

Y. Brovchenko← M. Gloshardin

81'

A. Rafalskyi← R. Skydan

90'

E. Grabovskyi← D. Sychevskyi

90'

D. Strochinskyi← D. Rudenko

90'

A. Korkodym← V. Olkhovych

Obolon'-Brovar

Volyn

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rudenko

Manager: D. Shapochnikov

46'▲V. Maydanovych←▼V. Bilyi

62'▲Y. Brovchenko←▼M. Gloshardin

81'▲A. Rafalskyi←▼R. Skydan

90'▲E. Grabovskyi←▼D. Sychevskyi

90'▲D. Strochinskyi←▼D. Rudenko

Obolon'-Brovar II substitutes

MaydanovychBrovchenkoRafalskyiGrabovskyiStrochinskyi

Manager: A. Shakhov

90'▲A. Korkodym←▼V. Olkhovych

Volyn Lutsk II substitutes

Korkodym