Obolon'-Brovar II 2–2 Rubikon: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rubikon

D. Kasimov 79'

B. Pokoiovyi 50'

R. Kunoun 82'

M. Tyshchenko 59'

10/17/2020

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 7Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II45%

×Draw25%

Rubikon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-Brovar IIExpected goals in this matchRubikon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.18

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.51

Rubikon

1.18

Obolon'-Brovar II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

0.73

creates per match

0.67

1.68

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

0.73

Rubikon

0.67

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.68

Rubikon

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Rubikon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Rubikon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw

70%

Obolon'-Brovar II or Rubikon

75%

Draw or Rubikon

55%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

22%

Rubikon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

78%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

44%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

19%

Rubikon 1+ goals

69%

Rubikon 2+ goals

33%

Rubikon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

60%

Rubikon (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Rubikon away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Rubikon defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.51

Rubikon attack 0.67 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

45%

level

25%

Rubikon scores more

30%

Obolon'-Brovar II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Chidomere← Y. Dyshkant

50'

B. Pokoiovyi

58'

A. Derevyago← V. Bachynskyi

59'

M. Tyshchenko

75'

B. Shvets← V. Novikov

79'

Y. Zarichnyuk← Y. Glushchuk

79'

D. Kasimov

82'

R. Kunoun

86'

O. Marchenko← A. Nesterenko

90'

Y. Mogil← S. Shyshkin

Obolon'-Brovar

Rubikon

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: O. Antonenko

46'▲A. Chidomere←▼Y. Dyshkant

Obolon'-Brovar II substitutes

Chidomere

Manager: S. Lytovchenko

58'▲A. Derevyago←▼V. Bachynskyi

75'▲B. Shvets←▼V. Novikov

79'▲Y. Zarichnyuk←▼Y. Glushchuk

86'▲O. Marchenko←▼A. Nesterenko

90'▲Y. Mogil←▼S. Shyshkin

Rubikon substitutes

DerevyagoShvetsZarichnyukMarchenkoMogil