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Obolon'-Brovar II vs Nyva Ternopil — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
CANC
22:00
Nyva Ternopil
Nyva Ternopil
5/22/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 33Addis Ababa Stadium (Addis Abeba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II12%
×Draw23%
Nyva Ternopil65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.56
Nyva Ternopil
1.69

Nyva Ternopil creates 202% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.73
Nyva Ternopil
1.70

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.68
Nyva Ternopil
0.40

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par
Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Nyva Ternopil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–118%
0–215%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw
35%
Obolon'-Brovar II or Nyva Ternopil
77%
Draw or Nyva Ternopil
88%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
3%
Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
43%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
11%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
2%
Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals
82%
Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals
50%
Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
15%
Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Nyva Ternopil defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.56

Nyva Ternopil attack 1.70 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
12%
level
23%
Nyva Ternopil scores more
65%

Nyva Ternopil at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nyva Ternopil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Obolon'-Brovar II host Nyva Ternopil

May 22, 2020: Obolon'-Brovar II take on Nyva Ternopil in Druha Liga - Group A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Obolon'-Brovar II host Nyva Ternopil at Addis Ababa Stadium (Addis Abeba).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.