Obolon'-Brovar II 2–0 Karpaty Halych

Obolon'-Brovar II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Karpaty Halych

4/26/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 19Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II25%

×Draw24%

Karpaty Halych51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-Brovar IIExpected goals in this matchKarpaty Halych

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.67

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.09

Karpaty Halych

1.67

Karpaty Halych creates 53% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

0.73

creates per match

1.65

1.68

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

0.73

Karpaty Halych

1.65

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II

1.68

Karpaty Halych

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Karpaty Halych →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw

49%

Obolon'-Brovar II or Karpaty Halych

76%

Draw or Karpaty Halych

75%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+

9%

Karpaty Halych wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals

66%

Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals

30%

Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals

10%

Karpaty Halych 1+ goals

81%

Karpaty Halych 2+ goals

50%

Karpaty Halych 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)

33%

Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.09

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more

25%

level

24%

Karpaty Halych scores more

51%

Karpaty Halych at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff