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Oberwart vs Rapid Wien II — Regionalliga - Ost 2025

Oberwart
Oberwart
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid Wien II
Rapid Wien II
5/6/2016Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 26Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Oberwart45%
×Draw24%
Rapid Wien II31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart
1.71
Rapid Wien II
1.38

Oberwart creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Oberwart
2.42
Rapid Wien II
1.75

allows per match

Oberwart
1.00
Rapid Wien II
1.00

finishing

Oberwart+0.00on par
Rapid Wien II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart ↓

Rapid Wien II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oberwart or draw
69%
Oberwart or Rapid Wien II
76%
Draw or Rapid Wien II
55%

Winning margin

Oberwart wins by 2+
24%
Rapid Wien II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oberwart 1+ goals
82%
Oberwart 2+ goals
51%
Oberwart 3+ goals
24%
Rapid Wien II 1+ goals
75%
Rapid Wien II 2+ goals
40%
Rapid Wien II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oberwart (draw refunded)
59%
Rapid Wien II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Rapid Wien II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart attack 2.42 + Rapid Wien II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rapid Wien II attack 1.75 + Oberwart defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oberwart scores more
45%
level
24%
Rapid Wien II scores more
31%

Oberwart at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oberwart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberwart vs Rapid Wien II

Oberwart and Rapid Wien II drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Ost on May 6, 2016.

The match was played at Informstadion in Oberwart.