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Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Wiener Viktoria — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wiener Viktoria
Wiener Viktoria
10/13/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 12Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm35%
×Draw23%
Wiener Viktoria42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.54
Wiener Viktoria
1.70

Wiener Viktoria creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.27
Wiener Viktoria
1.07

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.33
Wiener Viktoria
1.81

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Wiener Viktoria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Wiener Viktoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
58%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Wiener Viktoria
77%
Draw or Wiener Viktoria
65%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
17%
Wiener Viktoria wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
79%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
45%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
20%
Wiener Viktoria 1+ goals
82%
Wiener Viktoria 2+ goals
51%
Wiener Viktoria 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
46%
Wiener Viktoria (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Wiener Viktoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.81 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.27 + Wiener Viktoria defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wiener Viktoria attack 1.07 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
35%
level
23%
Wiener Viktoria scores more
42%

Wiener Viktoria at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wiener Viktoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Wiener Viktoria

Wiener Viktoria beat Oberwart / Rotenturm 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 13, 2023.

The match was played at Informstadion in Oberwart.