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Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Siegendorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
CANC
15:30
Siegendorf
Siegendorf
5/30/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 28Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm41%
×Draw21%
Siegendorf38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.94
Siegendorf
1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 53 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.47
Siegendorf
2.57

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.14
Siegendorf
1.40

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Siegendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Siegendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
62%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Siegendorf
79%
Draw or Siegendorf
59%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
22%
Siegendorf wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
86%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
58%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
30%
Siegendorf 1+ goals
84%
Siegendorf 2+ goals
55%
Siegendorf 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
52%
Siegendorf (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Siegendorf away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 2.47 + Siegendorf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.94

Siegendorf attack 2.57 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
41%
level
21%
Siegendorf scores more
38%

Oberwart / Rotenturm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oberwart / Rotenturm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oberwart / Rotenturm host Siegendorf

May 30, 2020: Oberwart / Rotenturm take on Siegendorf in Landesliga - Burgenland. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oberwart / Rotenturm host Siegendorf at Informstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.