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Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Mauerwerk — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mauerwerk
Mauerwerk
3/1/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 17Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm36%
×Draw23%
Mauerwerk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.62
Mauerwerk
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.27
Mauerwerk
1.21

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.33
Mauerwerk
1.97

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Mauerwerk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Mauerwerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
58%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Mauerwerk
77%
Draw or Mauerwerk
64%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
17%
Mauerwerk wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
80%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
48%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
22%
Mauerwerk 1+ goals
83%
Mauerwerk 2+ goals
53%
Mauerwerk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
46%
Mauerwerk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Mauerwerk away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.27 + Mauerwerk defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.62

Mauerwerk attack 1.21 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
36%
level
23%
Mauerwerk scores more
42%

Mauerwerk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mauerwerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Oberwart / Rotenturm 2–1 Mauerwerk

Oberwart / Rotenturm beat Mauerwerk 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Informstadion in Oberwart.