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Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Markt Allhau — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
CANC
14:00
Markt Allhau
Markt Allhau
3/27/2021Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm61%
×Draw19%
Markt Allhau20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.33
Markt Allhau
1.25

Oberwart / Rotenturm creates 86% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.47
Markt Allhau
1.37

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.14
Markt Allhau
2.20

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Markt Allhau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
80%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Markt Allhau
81%
Draw or Markt Allhau
39%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
39%
Markt Allhau wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
90%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
67%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
41%
Markt Allhau 1+ goals
71%
Markt Allhau 2+ goals
36%
Markt Allhau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
76%
Markt Allhau (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 2.47 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.33

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
61%
level
19%
Markt Allhau scores more
20%

Oberwart / Rotenturm at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oberwart / Rotenturm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberwart / Rotenturm face Markt Allhau (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Oberwart / Rotenturm hosting Markt Allhau. Match starts March 27, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.