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Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Krems — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Krems
Krems
9/1/2023Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 6Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm31%
×Draw23%
Krems46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.46
Krems
1.81

Krems creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.27
Krems
1.28

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.33
Krems
1.66

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Krems+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Krems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
54%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Krems
77%
Draw or Krems
69%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
14%
Krems wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
77%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
43%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
18%
Krems 1+ goals
84%
Krems 2+ goals
54%
Krems 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
41%
Krems (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Krems away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.27 + Krems defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krems attack 1.28 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
31%
level
23%
Krems scores more
46%

Krems at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Krems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Krems

Krems beat Oberwart / Rotenturm 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Informstadion in Oberwart.