Oberwart / Rotenturm 3–2 Horitschon: Result & Stats

Oberwart / Rotenturm

FT

3 – 2

Horitschon

4/14/2023

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 22Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm58%

×Draw19%

Horitschon23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oberwart / RotenturmExpected goals in this matchHoritschon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.45

Oberwart / Rotenturm

2.40

Horitschon

1.45

Oberwart / Rotenturm creates 66% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 88 away

2.47

creates per match

1.76

1.14

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm

2.47

Horitschon

1.76

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm

1.14

Horitschon

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par

Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Horitschon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw

77%

Oberwart / Rotenturm or Horitschon

81%

Draw or Horitschon

42%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+

37%

Horitschon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals

91%

Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals

69%

Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals

42%

Horitschon 1+ goals

77%

Horitschon 2+ goals

42%

Horitschon 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)

72%

Horitschon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.14 · 43 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 2.47 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more

58%

level

19%

Horitschon scores more

23%

Oberwart / Rotenturm at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oberwart / Rotenturm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff