Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Favoritner AC — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Oberwart / Rotenturm
Oberwart / Rotenturm
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Favoritner AC
Favoritner AC
3/15/2024Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 19Informstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oberwart / Rotenturm38%
×Draw23%
Favoritner AC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.65
Favoritner AC
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
1.27
Favoritner AC
1.00

allows per match

Oberwart / Rotenturm
2.33
Favoritner AC
2.02

finishing

Oberwart / Rotenturm+0.00on par
Favoritner AC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberwart / Rotenturm ↓

Favoritner AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Oberwart / Rotenturm or draw
61%
Oberwart / Rotenturm or Favoritner AC
77%
Draw or Favoritner AC
62%

Winning margin

Oberwart / Rotenturm wins by 2+
19%
Favoritner AC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oberwart / Rotenturm 1+ goals
81%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 2+ goals
49%
Oberwart / Rotenturm 3+ goals
23%
Favoritner AC 1+ goals
81%
Favoritner AC 2+ goals
50%
Favoritner AC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Oberwart / Rotenturm (draw refunded)
49%
Favoritner AC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberwart / Rotenturm at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Favoritner AC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberwart / Rotenturm attack 1.27 + Favoritner AC defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.65

Favoritner AC attack 1.00 + Oberwart / Rotenturm defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oberwart / Rotenturm scores more
38%
level
23%
Favoritner AC scores more
39%

Favoritner AC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Favoritner AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberwart / Rotenturm vs Favoritner AC

Favoritner AC beat Oberwart / Rotenturm 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Informstadion in Oberwart.