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Oberpetersdorf vs Ritzing — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Oberpetersdorf
Oberpetersdorf
FT
2 – 7
Ritzing
Ritzing
9/5/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 3Sportplatz Schwarzenbach SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oberpetersdorf24%
×Draw20%
Ritzing56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberpetersdorf
1.51
Ritzing
2.36

Ritzing creates 56% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 50 away

creates per match

Oberpetersdorf
1.63
Ritzing
2.16

allows per match

Oberpetersdorf
2.56
Ritzing
1.40

finishing

Oberpetersdorf+0.00on par
Ritzing+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberpetersdorf ↓

Ritzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Oberpetersdorf or draw
44%
Oberpetersdorf or Ritzing
80%
Draw or Ritzing
76%

Winning margin

Oberpetersdorf wins by 2+
11%
Ritzing wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Oberpetersdorf 1+ goals
78%
Oberpetersdorf 2+ goals
44%
Oberpetersdorf 3+ goals
19%
Ritzing 1+ goals
90%
Ritzing 2+ goals
68%
Ritzing 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Oberpetersdorf (draw refunded)
30%
Ritzing (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberpetersdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.56 · 27 matches

Ritzing away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.40 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberpetersdorf attack 1.63 + Ritzing defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ritzing attack 2.16 + Oberpetersdorf defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oberpetersdorf scores more
24%
level
20%
Ritzing scores more
56%

Ritzing at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ritzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Oberpetersdorf 2–7 Ritzing

Ritzing beat Oberpetersdorf 7-2 in Landesliga - Burgenland on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schwarzenbach SC in Schwarzenbach.