Oberpetersdorf vs Markt Allhau

Oberpetersdorf

CANC

14:30

Markt Allhau

4/10/2021

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oberpetersdorf38%

×Draw21%

Markt Allhau40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OberpetersdorfExpected goals in this matchMarkt Allhau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.97

Oberpetersdorf

1.92

Markt Allhau

1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 41 away

1.63

creates per match

1.37

2.56

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Oberpetersdorf

1.63

Markt Allhau

1.37

allows per match

Oberpetersdorf

2.56

Markt Allhau

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberpetersdorf+0.00on par

Markt Allhau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberpetersdorf ↓

Markt Allhau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Oberpetersdorf or draw

60%

Oberpetersdorf or Markt Allhau

79%

Draw or Markt Allhau

62%

Winning margin

Oberpetersdorf wins by 2+

20%

Markt Allhau wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Oberpetersdorf 1+ goals

85%

Oberpetersdorf 2+ goals

57%

Oberpetersdorf 3+ goals

30%

Markt Allhau 1+ goals

86%

Markt Allhau 2+ goals

58%

Markt Allhau 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Oberpetersdorf (draw refunded)

49%

Markt Allhau (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberpetersdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.56 · 27 matches

Markt Allhau away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberpetersdorf attack 1.63 + Markt Allhau defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.92

Markt Allhau attack 1.37 + Oberpetersdorf defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oberpetersdorf scores more

38%

level

21%

Markt Allhau scores more

40%

Markt Allhau at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Markt Allhau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff