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Oberpetersdorf vs Leithaprodersdorf — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Oberpetersdorf
Oberpetersdorf
CANC
15:30
Leithaprodersdorf
Leithaprodersdorf
5/30/2020Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 28Sportplatz Schwarzenbach SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oberpetersdorf31%
×Draw21%
Leithaprodersdorf48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberpetersdorf
1.69
Leithaprodersdorf
2.13

Leithaprodersdorf creates 26% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 87 away

creates per match

Oberpetersdorf
1.63
Leithaprodersdorf
1.70

allows per match

Oberpetersdorf
2.56
Leithaprodersdorf
1.74

finishing

Oberpetersdorf+0.00on par
Leithaprodersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberpetersdorf ↓

Leithaprodersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Oberpetersdorf or draw
52%
Oberpetersdorf or Leithaprodersdorf
79%
Draw or Leithaprodersdorf
69%

Winning margin

Oberpetersdorf wins by 2+
15%
Leithaprodersdorf wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Oberpetersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Oberpetersdorf 2+ goals
50%
Oberpetersdorf 3+ goals
24%
Leithaprodersdorf 1+ goals
88%
Leithaprodersdorf 2+ goals
63%
Leithaprodersdorf 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Oberpetersdorf (draw refunded)
39%
Leithaprodersdorf (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberpetersdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.56 · 27 matches

Leithaprodersdorf away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.74 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberpetersdorf attack 1.63 + Leithaprodersdorf defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leithaprodersdorf attack 1.70 + Oberpetersdorf defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oberpetersdorf scores more
31%
level
21%
Leithaprodersdorf scores more
48%

Leithaprodersdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leithaprodersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberpetersdorf face Leithaprodersdorf (Landesliga - Burgenland)

Landesliga - Burgenland returns with Oberpetersdorf hosting Leithaprodersdorf. Match starts May 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oberpetersdorf host Leithaprodersdorf at Sportplatz Schwarzenbach SC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.