Oberpetersdorf 1–7 Horitschon: Result & Stats

Oberpetersdorf

FT

1 – 7

Horitschon

4/15/2022

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 22Sportplatz Schwarzenbach SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oberpetersdorf36%

×Draw20%

Horitschon43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OberpetersdorfExpected goals in this matchHoritschon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.16

Oberpetersdorf

1.98

Horitschon

2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 88 away

1.63

creates per match

1.76

2.56

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Oberpetersdorf

1.63

Horitschon

1.76

allows per match

Oberpetersdorf

2.56

Horitschon

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberpetersdorf+0.00on par

Horitschon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberpetersdorf ↓

Horitschon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Oberpetersdorf or draw

57%

Oberpetersdorf or Horitschon

80%

Draw or Horitschon

64%

Winning margin

Oberpetersdorf wins by 2+

19%

Horitschon wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Oberpetersdorf 1+ goals

86%

Oberpetersdorf 2+ goals

59%

Oberpetersdorf 3+ goals

31%

Horitschon 1+ goals

88%

Horitschon 2+ goals

63%

Horitschon 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Oberpetersdorf (draw refunded)

46%

Horitschon (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberpetersdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.56 · 27 matches

Horitschon away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.33 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberpetersdorf attack 1.63 + Horitschon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.98

Horitschon attack 1.76 + Oberpetersdorf defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oberpetersdorf scores more

36%

level

20%

Horitschon scores more

43%

Horitschon at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff