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Oberperfuss vs SV Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Oberperfuss
Oberperfuss
FT
2 – 2
SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
5/12/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Oberperfuss Sportplatz Fußball Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Oberperfuss45%
×Draw21%
SV Innsbruck34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberperfuss
2.09
SV Innsbruck
1.78

Oberperfuss creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Oberperfuss
2.07
SV Innsbruck
1.70

allows per match

Oberperfuss
1.86
SV Innsbruck
2.11

finishing

Oberperfuss+0.00on par
SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberperfuss ↓

SV Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Oberperfuss or draw
66%
Oberperfuss or SV Innsbruck
79%
Draw or SV Innsbruck
55%

Winning margin

Oberperfuss wins by 2+
26%
SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oberperfuss 1+ goals
88%
Oberperfuss 2+ goals
62%
Oberperfuss 3+ goals
34%
SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
83%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
53%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Oberperfuss (draw refunded)
58%
SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberperfuss at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberperfuss attack 2.07 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.09

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + Oberperfuss defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oberperfuss scores more
45%
level
21%
SV Innsbruck scores more
34%

Oberperfuss at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oberperfuss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Oberperfuss 2–2 SV Innsbruck

Oberperfuss and SV Innsbruck drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Oberperfuss Sportplatz Fußball Platz in Oberperfuss.