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Oberneuland vs SV Darmstadt 98 — DFB Pokal 2018

Oberneuland
Oberneuland
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
8/11/2019DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundFlorian Wellmann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oberneuland3%
×Draw6%
SV Darmstadt 9891%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberneuland
0.99
SV Darmstadt 98
4.83

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 388% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oberneuland
0.67
SV Darmstadt 98
2.00

allows per match

Oberneuland
7.67
SV Darmstadt 98
1.30

finishing

Oberneuland+0.00on par
SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberneuland ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–37%
0–49%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Oberneuland or draw
9%
Oberneuland or SV Darmstadt 98
94%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
97%

Winning margin

Oberneuland wins by 2+
1%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
79%

Team goals

Oberneuland 1+ goals
63%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
26%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
8%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
99%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
94%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Oberneuland (draw refunded)
3%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberneuland at home — creates 0.67, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberneuland attack 0.67 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.00 + Oberneuland defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 4.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Oberneuland scores more
3%
level
6%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
91%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberneuland 1 – 6 SV Darmstadt 98

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Oberneuland 6-1 in DFB Pokal on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Florian Wellmann Stadion in Bremen.