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Oberneuland vs FC Nurnberg — DFB Pokal 2018

Oberneuland
Oberneuland
FT
1 – 9
HT: 0 – 6
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
B. Lambers 89'
C. Daferner 90'
B. Goller 71'
C. Uzun 67', 14', 10'
T. Duman 29' (pen), 24'
A. Gürleyen 19'
D. Hayashi 15'
8/12/2023DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundMarko Mock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Oberneuland2%
×Draw5%
FC Nurnberg93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberneuland
0.73
FC Nurnberg
4.78

FC Nurnberg creates 555% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Oberneuland
0.67
FC Nurnberg
1.89

allows per match

Oberneuland
7.67
FC Nurnberg
0.78

finishing

Oberneuland+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberneuland ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–26%
0–39%
0–411%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Oberneuland or draw
7%
Oberneuland or FC Nurnberg
95%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
98%

Winning margin

Oberneuland wins by 2+
0%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
83%

Team goals

Oberneuland 1+ goals
52%
Oberneuland 2+ goals
17%
Oberneuland 3+ goals
4%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
99%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
94%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Oberneuland (draw refunded)
2%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberneuland at home — creates 0.67, concedes 7.67 · 3 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberneuland attack 0.67 + FC Nurnberg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

FC Nurnberg attack 1.89 + Oberneuland defence 7.67 → ÷2 → 4.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Oberneuland scores more
2%
level
5%
FC Nurnberg scores more
93%

FC Nurnberg at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. DumanFC NurnbergFC Nurnberg · M
10.0

Match Events

10'
C. Uzun↳ L. Schleimer
14'
C. Uzun↳ T. Duman
15'
D. Hayashi
19'
A. Gürleyen↳ T. Duman
24'
T. Duman↳ C. Uzun
29'
T. DumanPenalty
46'
B. Lambers← A. Eboazatan
46'
J. Böhning← K. Elmali
46'
P. Treis← L. Graban
46'
C. Klaus← C. Mathenia
46'
T. Handwerker← N. Brown
46'
J. Horn← J. Lawrence
52'
Y. Bidenko← O. Thiem
56'
B. Goller← K. Okunuki
56'
C. Daferner← D. Hayashi
63'
A. Chornenko← P. Engelkestock
67'
C. Uzun
71'
B. Goller↳ L. Schleimer
82'
Tom Hentschel
89'
B. Lambers↳ J. Schmidt
90'
C. Daferner↳ T. Handwerker

Possession

25%Oberneuland

Shots

5Oberneuland

Pass accuracy

42%Oberneuland

Statistics

OberneulandFC
Overview
25%Possession75%
5Total Shots38
1Corners14
10Fouls11
Shots
5Total Shots38
1On Target16
1Off Target8
3Blocked14
2Inside Box26
3Outside Box12
Passing
25%Possession75%
189Total Passes596
119Accurate Passes518
63%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

DFB Pokal: Oberneuland 1–9 FC Nurnberg

FC Nurnberg beat Oberneuland 9-1 in DFB Pokal on August 12, 2023.

Goals: C. Uzun (10', 14', 67'), D. Hayashi (15'), A. Gürleyen (19'), T. Duman (24', 29' pen), B. Goller (71'), B. Lambers (89'), C. Daferner (90').

FC Nurnberg controlled possession (75%) and registered 38 shots to 5.

The match was played at Marko Mock Arena in Bremen.