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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs VfL Halle — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
CANC
12:00
VfL Halle
VfL Halle
6/18/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 38ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf40%
×Draw24%
VfL Halle37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.59
VfL Halle
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 81 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
VfL Halle
1.62

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
VfL Halle
1.75

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
VfL Halle+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

VfL Halle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
63%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or VfL Halle
76%
Draw or VfL Halle
60%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
20%
VfL Halle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
80%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
47%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
21%
VfL Halle 1+ goals
78%
VfL Halle 2+ goals
45%
VfL Halle 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
52%
VfL Halle (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

VfL Halle away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + VfL Halle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

VfL Halle attack 1.62 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
40%
level
24%
VfL Halle scores more
37%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf face VfL Halle (Oberliga - Nordost-Süd)

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd returns with Oberlausitz Neugersdorf hosting VfL Halle. Match starts June 18, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf host VfL Halle at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.