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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SC Freital
SC Freital
1/28/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Jahnsportanlage Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf35%
×Draw24%
SC Freital41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.44
SC Freital
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
59%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or SC Freital
76%
Draw or SC Freital
65%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
16%
SC Freital wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
76%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
42%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
18%
SC Freital 1+ goals
79%
SC Freital 2+ goals
46%
SC Freital 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
46%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
35%
level
24%
SC Freital scores more
41%

SC Freital at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 0–1 SC Freital

SC Freital beat Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Jahnsportanlage Kunstrasenplatz in Ebersbach-Neugersdorf.