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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs International Leipzig — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
1 – 0
International Leipzig
International Leipzig
9/11/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 6ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf51%
×Draw22%
International Leipzig27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.99
International Leipzig
1.40

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
International Leipzig
1.36

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
International Leipzig
2.55

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
International Leipzig+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

International Leipzig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
73%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or International Leipzig
78%
Draw or International Leipzig
49%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
29%
International Leipzig wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
86%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
59%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
32%
International Leipzig 1+ goals
75%
International Leipzig 2+ goals
41%
International Leipzig 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
65%
International Leipzig (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

International Leipzig away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + International Leipzig defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.99

International Leipzig attack 1.36 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
51%
level
22%
International Leipzig scores more
27%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1–0 International Leipzig

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf beat International Leipzig 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.