Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1–0 FC Grimma

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

FT

1 – 0

FC Grimma

10/30/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf47%

×Draw23%

FC Grimma30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oberlausitz NeugersdorfExpected goals in this matchFC Grimma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.36

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.76

FC Grimma

1.36

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 82 away

1.43

creates per match

1.30

1.43

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.43

FC Grimma

1.30

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.43

FC Grimma

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

FC Grimma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

FC Grimma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw

70%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or FC Grimma

77%

Draw or FC Grimma

53%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+

25%

FC Grimma wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals

83%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals

52%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals

26%

FC Grimma 1+ goals

74%

FC Grimma 2+ goals

39%

FC Grimma 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)

61%

FC Grimma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

FC Grimma away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.09 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + FC Grimma defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.76

FC Grimma attack 1.30 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more

47%

level

23%

FC Grimma scores more

30%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff