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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Einheit Rudolstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
CANC
12:00
Einheit Rudolstadt
Einheit Rudolstadt
6/5/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 36ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf46%
×Draw23%
Einheit Rudolstadt31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.78
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.42

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 82 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Einheit Rudolstadt
1.40

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Einheit Rudolstadt
2.13

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Einheit Rudolstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Einheit Rudolstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
69%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Einheit Rudolstadt
77%
Draw or Einheit Rudolstadt
54%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
25%
Einheit Rudolstadt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
83%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
53%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
26%
Einheit Rudolstadt 1+ goals
76%
Einheit Rudolstadt 2+ goals
41%
Einheit Rudolstadt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
60%
Einheit Rudolstadt (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Einheit Rudolstadt away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Einheit Rudolstadt defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.78

Einheit Rudolstadt attack 1.40 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
46%
level
23%
Einheit Rudolstadt scores more
31%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf host Einheit Rudolstadt

June 5, 2022: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf take on Einheit Rudolstadt in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf host Einheit Rudolstadt at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.