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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Eilenburg — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Eilenburg
Eilenburg
8/27/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf30%
×Draw24%
Eilenburg46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.28
Eilenburg
1.63

Eilenburg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 22 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Eilenburg
1.82

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Eilenburg
1.14

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Eilenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Eilenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
54%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Eilenburg
76%
Draw or Eilenburg
70%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
13%
Eilenburg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
72%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
37%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
14%
Eilenburg 1+ goals
80%
Eilenburg 2+ goals
48%
Eilenburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
40%
Eilenburg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Eilenburg away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Eilenburg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Eilenburg attack 1.82 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
30%
level
24%
Eilenburg scores more
46%

Eilenburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eilenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Eilenburg

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf and Eilenburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.