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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Budissa Bautzen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budissa Bautzen
Budissa Bautzen
11/5/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf42%
×Draw23%
Budissa Bautzen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.77
Budissa Bautzen
1.60

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Budissa Bautzen
1.78

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Budissa Bautzen
2.12

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Budissa Bautzen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Budissa Bautzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
65%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Budissa Bautzen
77%
Draw or Budissa Bautzen
58%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
22%
Budissa Bautzen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
83%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
53%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
26%
Budissa Bautzen 1+ goals
80%
Budissa Bautzen 2+ goals
47%
Budissa Bautzen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
55%
Budissa Bautzen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Budissa Bautzen away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.12 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Budissa Bautzen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.77

Budissa Bautzen attack 1.78 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
42%
level
23%
Budissa Bautzen scores more
35%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oberlausitz Neugersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Budissa Bautzen

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf beat Budissa Bautzen 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.