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Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Auerbach — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Auerbach
Auerbach
10/22/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf32%
×Draw24%
Auerbach44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.35
Auerbach
1.61

Auerbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

creates per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Auerbach
1.79

allows per match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf
1.43
Auerbach
1.27

finishing

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par
Auerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf ↓

Auerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or draw
56%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf or Auerbach
76%
Draw or Auerbach
68%

Winning margin

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+
14%
Auerbach wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals
74%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals
39%
Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals
15%
Auerbach 1+ goals
80%
Auerbach 2+ goals
48%
Auerbach 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)
42%
Auerbach (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

Auerbach away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 1.43 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Auerbach attack 1.79 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more
32%
level
24%
Auerbach scores more
44%

Auerbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberlausitz Neugersdorf vs Auerbach

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf and Auerbach drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at ENSO-Oberlausitz-Arena in Neugersdorf.