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Oberena vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Oberena
Oberena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Subiza
Subiza
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena37%
×Draw27%
Subiza36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberena
1.25
Subiza
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

creates per match

Oberena
1.31
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Oberena
1.14
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oberena or draw
64%
Oberena or Subiza
73%
Draw or Subiza
63%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+
16%
Subiza wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals
71%
Oberena 2+ goals
36%
Oberena 3+ goals
13%
Subiza 1+ goals
71%
Subiza 2+ goals
35%
Subiza 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)
51%
Subiza (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Subiza attack 1.32 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oberena scores more
37%
level
27%
Subiza scores more
36%

Oberena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Oberena 1–1 Subiza

Oberena and Subiza drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Oberena in Pamplona.