Oberena 2–2 Peña Sport: Result & Stats

Oberena

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Peña Sport

11/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena37%

×Draw27%

Peña Sport36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OberenaExpected goals in this matchPeña Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.26

Oberena

1.27

Peña Sport

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

1.31

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Oberena

1.31

Peña Sport

1.38

allows per match

Oberena

1.14

Peña Sport

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par

Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Peña Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Oberena or draw

64%

Oberena or Peña Sport

73%

Draw or Peña Sport

63%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+

16%

Peña Sport wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals

72%

Oberena 2+ goals

36%

Oberena 3+ goals

14%

Peña Sport 1+ goals

72%

Peña Sport 2+ goals

36%

Peña Sport 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)

50%

Peña Sport (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oberena scores more

37%

level

27%

Peña Sport scores more

36%

Oberena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff