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Oberena vs Lerinés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Oberena
Oberena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lerinés
Lerinés
2/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Oberena50%
×Draw26%
Lerinés24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberena
1.54
Lerinés
0.98

Oberena creates 57% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Oberena
1.31
Lerinés
0.82

allows per match

Oberena
1.14
Lerinés
1.76

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par
Lerinés+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Lerinés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oberena or draw
76%
Oberena or Lerinés
74%
Draw or Lerinés
50%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+
26%
Lerinés wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals
79%
Oberena 2+ goals
45%
Oberena 3+ goals
20%
Lerinés 1+ goals
62%
Lerinés 2+ goals
26%
Lerinés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)
68%
Lerinés (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Lerinés away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Lerinés defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lerinés attack 0.82 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oberena scores more
50%
level
26%
Lerinés scores more
24%

Oberena at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Oberena 1–2 Lerinés

Lerinés beat Oberena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Oberena in Pamplona.