Obercorn 0–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Obercorn

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

10/6/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundTerrain Synthétique Woiwer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Obercorn3%

×Draw10%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ObercornExpected goals in this matchRacing FC Union Luxembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.42

2.95

Obercorn

0.42

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

2.95

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 602% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

0.40

creates per match

3.50

2.40

allows per match

0.44

creates per match

Obercorn

0.40

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

3.50

allows per match

Obercorn

2.40

Racing FC Union Luxembourg

0.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obercorn+0.00on par

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obercorn ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →

0–04%

0–110%

0–215%

0–315%

0–411%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–45%

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Obercorn or draw

13%

Obercorn or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

90%

Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg

97%

Winning margin

Obercorn wins by 2+

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+

69%

Team goals

Obercorn 1+ goals

34%

Obercorn 2+ goals

Obercorn 3+ goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals

95%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals

79%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Obercorn (draw refunded)

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Obercorn at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Obercorn attack 0.40 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.42

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 3.50 + Obercorn defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 87%?"

Obercorn scores more

level

10%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more

87%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff