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Obercorn vs Norden — Cup 2020

Obercorn
Obercorn
FT
1 – 0
Norden
Norden
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain Synthétique Woiwer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Obercorn25%
×Draw22%
Norden53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obercorn
1.36
Norden
2.04

Norden creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Obercorn
0.40
Norden
1.67

allows per match

Obercorn
2.40
Norden
2.33

finishing

Obercorn+0.00on par
Norden+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obercorn ↓

Norden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Obercorn or draw
47%
Obercorn or Norden
78%
Draw or Norden
75%

Winning margin

Obercorn wins by 2+
11%
Norden wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Obercorn 1+ goals
74%
Obercorn 2+ goals
39%
Obercorn 3+ goals
16%
Norden 1+ goals
87%
Norden 2+ goals
60%
Norden 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Obercorn (draw refunded)
32%
Norden (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obercorn at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Norden away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obercorn attack 0.40 + Norden defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Norden attack 1.67 + Obercorn defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Obercorn scores more
25%
level
22%
Norden scores more
53%

Norden at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Norden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Obercorn 1–0 Norden

Obercorn beat Norden 1-0 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Synthétique Woiwer in Differdange.