Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Obercorn vs Lorentzweiler — Cup 2020

Obercorn
Obercorn
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Lorentzweiler
Lorentzweiler
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Synthétique Woiwer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Obercorn8%
×Draw14%
Lorentzweiler78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obercorn
0.70
Lorentzweiler
2.60

Lorentzweiler creates 271% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Obercorn
0.40
Lorentzweiler
2.80

allows per match

Obercorn
2.40
Lorentzweiler
1.00

finishing

Obercorn+0.00on par
Lorentzweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obercorn ↓

Lorentzweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Obercorn or draw
22%
Obercorn or Lorentzweiler
86%
Draw or Lorentzweiler
92%

Winning margin

Obercorn wins by 2+
2%
Lorentzweiler wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Obercorn 1+ goals
50%
Obercorn 2+ goals
16%
Obercorn 3+ goals
3%
Lorentzweiler 1+ goals
92%
Lorentzweiler 2+ goals
73%
Lorentzweiler 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Obercorn (draw refunded)
9%
Lorentzweiler (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obercorn at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Lorentzweiler away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obercorn attack 0.40 + Lorentzweiler defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Lorentzweiler attack 2.80 + Obercorn defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Obercorn scores more
8%
level
14%
Lorentzweiler scores more
78%

Lorentzweiler at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Lorentzweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Obercorn vs Lorentzweiler

Lorentzweiler beat Obercorn 4-1 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Synthétique Woiwer in Differdange.