Obercorn 0–4 F91 Dudelange: Result & Stats | Cup

Obercorn

0 – 4

F91 Dudelange

10/3/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundStade du Thillenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Obercorn6%

×Draw11%

F91 Dudelange83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ObercornExpected goals in this matchF91 Dudelange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

3.20

Obercorn

0.80

F91 Dudelange

3.20

F91 Dudelange creates 300% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

0.40

creates per match

4.00

2.40

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Obercorn

0.40

F91 Dudelange

4.00

allows per match

Obercorn

2.40

F91 Dudelange

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obercorn+0.00on par

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obercorn ↓

F91 Dudelange →

0–02%

0–16%

0–210%

0–310%

0–48%

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Obercorn or draw

17%

Obercorn or F91 Dudelange

89%

Draw or F91 Dudelange

94%

Winning margin

Obercorn wins by 2+

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Obercorn 1+ goals

55%

Obercorn 2+ goals

19%

Obercorn 3+ goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals

96%

F91 Dudelange 2+ goals

82%

F91 Dudelange 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Obercorn (draw refunded)

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Obercorn at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

F91 Dudelange away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Obercorn attack 0.40 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.80

F91 Dudelange attack 4.00 + Obercorn defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Obercorn scores more

level

11%

F91 Dudelange scores more

83%

F91 Dudelange at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff