Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oberachern vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Oberachern
Oberachern
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
9/10/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7Waldsportplatz Oberachern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oberachern49%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberachern
1.90
Freiburger FC
1.39

Oberachern creates 37% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oberachern
1.73
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Oberachern
1.66
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Oberachern+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberachern ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oberachern or draw
72%
Oberachern or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
51%

Winning margin

Oberachern wins by 2+
28%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oberachern 1+ goals
85%
Oberachern 2+ goals
56%
Oberachern 3+ goals
29%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
75%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
40%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Oberachern (draw refunded)
64%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberachern at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberachern attack 1.73 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Oberachern defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oberachern scores more
49%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
28%

Oberachern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberachern vs Freiburger FC

Oberachern beat Freiburger FC 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Waldsportplatz Oberachern in Achern.