CA Estudiantes 0–2 Comunicaciones: Result & Stats

CA Estudiantes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Comunicaciones

J. Rodríguez 81'

L. Vera 39'

9/12/2017

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 3Estadio Ciudad de Caseros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

CA Estudiantes35%

×Draw31%

Comunicaciones34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA EstudiantesExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.01

CA Estudiantes

1.02

Comunicaciones

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 43 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

CA Estudiantes

1.00

Comunicaciones

1.02

allows per match

CA Estudiantes

1.00

Comunicaciones

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Estudiantes ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CA Estudiantes or draw

66%

CA Estudiantes or Comunicaciones

69%

Draw or Comunicaciones

65%

Winning margin

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

13%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

64%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

27%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

8%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

64%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

27%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

50%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Estudiantes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Estudiantes attack 1.00 + Comunicaciones defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Comunicaciones attack 1.02 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

CA Estudiantes scores more

35%

level

31%

Comunicaciones scores more

34%

CA Estudiantes at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "CA Estudiantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

L. Vera

81'

J. Rodríguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff