Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kabuscorp vs Nacional de Benguela — Girabola 2012

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
2 – 1
Nacional de Benguela
Nacional de Benguela
6/30/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kabuscorp49%
×Draw35%
Nacional de Benguela17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.02
Nacional de Benguela
0.47

Kabuscorp creates 117% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.04
Nacional de Benguela
0.33

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.61
Nacional de Benguela
1.00

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Nacional de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–111%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
83%
Kabuscorp or Nacional de Benguela
65%
Draw or Nacional de Benguela
51%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
20%
Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
64%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
27%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
8%
Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals
37%
Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals
8%
Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
74%
Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.04 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.33 + Kabuscorp defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
49%
level
35%
Nacional de Benguela scores more
17%

Kabuscorp at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Kabuscorp 2–1 Nacional de Benguela

Kabuscorp beat Nacional de Benguela 2-1 in Girabola on June 30, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária.