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Genk vs Oostende — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Oostende
Oostende
9/21/2019Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 8Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Genk56%
×Draw23%
Oostende21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.84
Oostende
1.02

Genk creates 80% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 86 away

creates per match

Genk
1.90
Oostende
1.02

allows per match

Genk
1.01
Oostende
1.79

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Oostende+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Oostende →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Genk or draw
79%
Genk or Oostende
77%
Draw or Oostende
44%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
32%
Oostende wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
84%
Genk 2+ goals
55%
Genk 3+ goals
28%
Oostende 1+ goals
64%
Oostende 2+ goals
27%
Oostende 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
73%
Oostende (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 157 matches

Oostende away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.90 + Oostende defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

Oostende attack 1.02 + Genk defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Genk scores more
56%
level
23%
Oostende scores more
21%

Genk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genk 3 – 1 Oostende

Genk beat Oostende 3-1 in Jupiler Pro League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Luminus Arena in Genk.