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Oakleigh Cannons vs Sydney — Australia Cup 2021

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannonsadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sydney
Sydney
8/31/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Quarter-finalsJack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons28%
×Draw22%
Sydney51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.46
Sydney
2.04

Sydney creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.80
Sydney
1.88

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.20
Sydney
1.13

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
49%
Oakleigh Cannons or Sydney
78%
Draw or Sydney
72%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
12%
Sydney wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
77%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
43%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
18%
Sydney 1+ goals
87%
Sydney 2+ goals
60%
Sydney 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
35%
Sydney (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sydney away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.80 + Sydney defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sydney attack 1.88 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
28%
level
22%
Sydney scores more
51%

Sydney at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakleigh Cannons vs Sydney

Oakleigh Cannons beat Sydney 2-1 in Australia Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.