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Oakleigh Cannons vs Sunshine Georgies — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
A. Duratovic 79'
K. Sinclair 18'
L. Mazis 42'
3/20/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons50%
×Draw23%
Sunshine Georgies28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
1.87
Sunshine Georgies
1.34

Oakleigh Cannons creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Sunshine Georgies
1.60

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Sunshine Georgies
1.30

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Sunshine Georgies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
72%
Oakleigh Cannons or Sunshine Georgies
77%
Draw or Sunshine Georgies
50%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
28%
Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
85%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
56%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
29%
Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
74%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
39%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
64%
Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Sunshine Georgies away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.87

Sunshine Georgies attack 1.60 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
50%
level
23%
Sunshine Georgies scores more
28%

Oakleigh Cannons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Sinclair
42'
L. Mazis
79'
A. Duratovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakleigh Cannons vs Sunshine Georgies

Oakleigh Cannons beat Sunshine Georgies 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 20, 2026.

Goals: K. Sinclair (18'), L. Mazis (42'), A. Duratovic (79').

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.